I think we've all been looking forward to this one for some time. On this edition of the Crystal Ball I look ahead to UFC on Fox 5 which takes place this Sunday at 1 am (in the UK).This card has a bit of everything, a big comeback, two legends, two rising stars and championship fight between two of the best fighters in the world. The main event is a lightweight title fight featuring UFC lightweight champion Benson 'Smooth' Henderson and Ultimate Fighter winner Nate Diaz. In the co-main event former UFC light-heavyweight champion Maurcio 'Shogun' Rua and rising light-heavyweight star Alexander Gustafsson. Perhaps the most interesting fight on the card features former lightweight and welterweight champion B.J Penn and rising welterweight star Rory MacDonald. Let's get these predictions going!
Benson Henderson Vs. Nate Diaz (for the UFC lightweight title)
What a fight! I mean seriously how can this not be a barn-burner of a match-up? I think it's a safe bet that these two will take home the fight of the night bonus, the question is who walks away with the title? It's a tough call because both fighters have been on the form of their lives recently. Since losing his WEC title in 2010, Henderson has won all five of his UFC bouts by decision with wins over the likes of Jim Miller, Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar. Mind you his rematch with Edgar in was far from his best performance and most believe he lost. Diaz meanwhile has three straight victories since his return to the lightweight division with submission wins over Takonori Gomi and Jim Miller and a decision win over Donald Cerrone.
In theory they could prove to be each others nightmare match ups. Benson's last loss came against Anthony 'Showtime' Pettis who was able to out strike him on the feet and aggressively look for submissions off his back. Diaz may not be as good with his kicks as Pettis but he is better with his hands and far superior on the ground. Mind you if you look at Diaz's losses he tends to lose to wrestlers who are able to neutralise his striking and negate his BJJ once the fight gets to the ground. Benson is probably better at that than anyone Diaz has fought at lightweight. So who has the advantage?
Honestly I have no idea. However I can see one of the following two scenarios coming to fruition. The first is Benson using leg kicks to throw off Nate's boxing and set up takedowns. From there he will look to slowly wear Diaz down with ground and pound en-route to a points decision. The second scenario has Diaz establishing his long jab early in the fight while looking to set up his straight left hand. If he can keep the fight standing or maintain the top position if it does go to the ground he should be able to get his body shots going leading to a TKO in the 3rd or 4th round. I'm going with Benson but frankly I can't choose between them.
My Pick: Henderson by decision
Shogun Vs. Gustafsson
Weirdly this fight has flown under the radar a bit but it has the potential to be awesome. Shogun may not be in his prime any more but he is never in a bad fight and he always looks for the KO. Gustafsson is not always as much fun but he has been very effective recently with victories over the likes of Thiago Silva, Vladimir Matyushenko and Matt Hamill.
There are a lot of questions about Shogun after his last performance, he ran out of gas by the end of the second round of his fight with Brandon Vera although he was still able to finish the fight in the fourth round. It's fair to say he's been inconsistent recently but he's been consistent in his inconsistency. He tends to struggle in his first fight back after a long lay-off but then he finds his form again in the following fight. I think he'll be much better this time out.
It's also worth saying that this is undeniably the biggest test of Gustafsson's career to date. Shogun is a huge step-up in class from the likes of Thiago Silva and the Swede will need to be at his best to overcome this challenge.
This fight will hinge entirely on whether or not Shogun can get inside the reach of Gustafsson. If he can he should be able to connect with some heavy shots on the inside as Gustafsson tends to hold his hands low. If Rua can land big shots early then this fight may not last long. If Gustafsson can keep it at range then he should be able to work his way to a points victory.
My Pick: Shogun by 2nd round TKO
Penn Vs. MacDonald
After more than a year of inactivity B.J Penn will be making his return to the Octagon to face Canada's rising star Rory MacDonald. What a storyline it would be if he could pull it off. The Hawaiian will have a hell of task as the young Canadian is a huge welterweight and he will look to use that mass to wear out the much older Penn. If B.J wants any real chance of winning this fight he will need to establish his jab early in the fight and look to hurt MacDonald in the first round if he can. He will probably need to close the show in the first round if he's going to win. MacDonald needs to take this fight into the later rounds and use his wrestling to drain B.J's cardio. If he does that he should be able to set up and stoppage in the third round.
My Pick: MacDonald by 3rd round TKO
Swick Vs. Brown
This fight may not have the profile of the other fights on the main card but it should be good fun. Swick is coming off his KO victory over DeMarques Johnson on the last Fox show back in August. Brown meanwhile has put together a nice three fight winning streak including wins over the likes of Stephen Thomson, Chris Cope and Luis Ramos. Brown is naturally going to look to take the fight to the ground as early as possible, if he can get it there he may be able to wear out the Ultimate Fighter veteran. However that strategy might lead him right into Swick's guillotine choke. On the feet I think Swick probably has the advantage as well so I expect him to take this one.
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